RUPEE OVERVIEW

Investors worldwide treaded with caution ahead of the US Federal Reserve's monetary policy statement scheduled for later today, which prompted them to trim their dollar holdings. This resulted in the US dollar erasing its earlier gains globally, and may lift the Indian rupee at open.Moreover, mild strength in Asian equities and fall in crude oil prices are expected to support the rupee in early trade.While no major policy decisions are expected to be announced by the US Fed today, the policymakers may publish their first economic projections since December. The Fed is expected to maintain near-zero interest rates for the next few years.Optimism about a swift recovery in global economic growth has sent share indices close to a record high. But, investors started booking profits on their dollar holdings since Tuesday due to the view that the rally in global equities was overdone.Another factor that may augur well for the rupee is decline in crude oil prices in early trade today.Since India is a major importer of crude oil, lower prices narrow India's external balances that provide comfort to the rupee.The rupee may remain supported by the expectations of foreign fund inflows from overseas investors who are looking to invest in Indian companies. Some exporters are also likely to sell the greenback around technical support level of 75.62 a dollar, which may keep the rupee supporteD.In case of a sharp rise in the rupee, the Reserve Bank of India may step in to purchase the greenback and curtail rise beyond 75.35-75.40 a dollar. The RBI's relentless dollar-buying interventions last week have signalled traders that the central bank may not allow appreciation in rupee above these levels.Premium on the one-year dollar/rupee forward contract may fall as banks and exporters are likely to sell dollars for forward delivery on expectations that the rupee may not fall beyond 76.00 a dollar in the coming days.