CURRENCY OVERVIEW

The Rupee opened weak  on Thursday as the prospect of less aggressive interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve and geopolitical risks from the Ukraine-Russia conflict renewed strength in the U.S. dollar. Indian financial markets were shut for a holiday on Wednesday. The rupee declined to its all-time low of 84.42 on Tuesday, with likely intervention by the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) helping it avert deeper losses. The dollar index was little changed at 106.5 after rising 0.4% on Wednesday, snapping a three-day losing streak, as investors pared hopes for aggressive Fed rate cuts and awaited more clarity on U.S. President-elect Donald Trump's policies. The odds of a December rate cut by the Fed have declined to 52%, down from 82% last week, according to CME's FedWatch tool. The dollar's recovery will "certainly weigh on the rupee," but the extent of weakness in the currency will yet again depend on what the RBI is willing to allow. Persistent outflows from Indian stocks and bonds have also put pressure on the rupee, with overseas investors pulling out nearly $4 billion from local assets so far in November, adding to $11.5 billion in outflows last month. The U.S. dollar stood broadly firm on Thursday as traders awaited more clarity on U.S. President-elect Donald Trump's proposed policies and sought to second-guess the prospects of less aggressive interest rate cuts from the Federal Reserve. After stalling for three sessions, the greenback was back on the march higher, with investors lifting the dollar index measure against its key rivals closer to a one-year high of 107.07 hit last week. The euro was nearly flat at $1.054725 after slipping 0.5% on Wednesday, back toward last week's low of $1.0496, its weakest against the dollar since Oct. 2023. The dollar gave up some gains against the yen, down 0.33% at 154.91 yen , although the Japanese currency remained under pressure.The currency pair rose above the 156 mark last week for the first time since July, stirring worries that Japanese authorities may again take steps to shore up the yen. Sterling was up 0.07% at $1.2656. Data on Wednesday showed British inflation jumped more than expected last month to rise back above the Bank of England's 2% target, supporting the central bank's cautious approach on interest rate cuts. Oil prices edged higher on Thursday due to supply concerns triggered by escalating geopolitical tensions amid the ongoing war between Russia and Ukraine. Brent crude futures for January rose 28 cents, or 0.4%, to $73.09. U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude futures for January rose 28 cents, or 0.4%, at $69.03.

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The local currency had declined to its record low of 84.4125 last week.