CURRENCY OVERVIEW

The Rupee closed low on Wednesday, hurt by a sharp rise in the dollar and U.S. bond yields as Republican Donald Trump claimed victory in the U.S. presidential election. However, intervention by the Reserve Bank of India helped the currency limit losses compared to its regional peers, which fell as much as 1.8%. The risk now is that the rupee weakens further with its direction being influenced by how much strength the dollar exhibits and how sharply the Chinese yuan depreciates, said Dhiraj Nim, a forex strategist and economist at ANZ. The dollar index climbed over 1.5% to 104.9, while the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield touched a more than four-month peak before retreating to 4.43%. The offshore Chinese yuan was down 1.1% at 7.18 per dollar. Trump has vowed to impose a 10% tariff on imports from all countries and 60% duties on Chinese imports, with analysts reckoning that his immigration, taxation, and tariff policies may exert upward pressure on U.S. inflation. While markets were still confident the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates by 25 basis points on Thursday, odds of a similar-sized rate cut in December slipped to about 68% from nearly 80% a day ago, according to the CME FedWatch tool. The dollar soared on Wednesday and was set for its biggest one-day rise since March 2020 after Republican Donald Trump won the U.S. presidential election, while the euro, Chinese yuan and Mexican peso were among the biggest losers on potential new tariffs in the regions. The euro zone, Mexico, China and Canada are viewed as being as being at risk of potential new tariffs, which may hurt economic growth in the regions and widen their interest rate differentials with the United States. The dollar index was last up 1.72% at 105.17 and reached 105.44, the highest since July 3. The euro dropped 1.91% to $1.0720 and got as low as $1.0683, the lowest since June 27. The greenback rose 1.60% to 154.02 Japanese yen and reached 154.48, the highest since July 30. Oil prices turned positive on Wednesday after falling by more than $2, despite U.S. crude stocks rising by more than expected, according to the Energy Information Administration (EIA). Brent crude oil futures were up 38 cents, or 0.5%, at $75.91 per barrel by 11:07 a.m. EDT. U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude rose by 57 cents or 0.79%, to $72.56.

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