CURRENCY OVERVIEW

The Rupee closed steady on Monday, supported by the central bank's market intervention as portfolio outflows and a decline in most Asian currencies weighed on the local unit. The currency hovered in a 2-paisa band through the day while its regional peers were down between 0.1% to 0.3%. Asian currencies had kicked off Monday's trading session on a positive note but most were unable to hold onto their gains through the session. The dollar index was steady at 106.7. Dollar sales by state-run banks, on behalf of the Reserve Bank of India (RBI), helped the rupee avoid losses, traders said. The dollar index is up more than 2.5% in November so far while the U.S. 10-year Treasury yield touched an over-5-month high of 4.50% last week. The pound held steady on Monday after falling to a six-month low the previous week as the dollar surged on the back of Donald Trump's victory in the U.S. presidential election. Sterling was last up 0.1% at $1.2627, from $1.2598 on Friday, its lowest since mid-May. Sterling has fallen around 2.7% since the election although it has fared better than the euro , which many traders think will bear the brunt of higher U.S. tariffs which are likely to focus on China, the European Union and Mexico. Traders see a roughly 80% chance the Bank of England will cut rates again next month, and see rates falling by around 65 basis points to just above 4% by the end of next year. The BoE rate is currently 4.75%. The relatively slow pace of expected cuts has supported the pound this year, which is down 0.8% against the dollar in 2024, compared to a 4.3% drop in the euro . The euro fell to a 2-1/2 year low against the pound of 82.62 pence early last week as investors bet Trump's tariffs would be worse for the euro zone than Britain. It was last up 0.23% at 83.70 pence, after also rising on Friday in the wake of the weak British data. Oil prices gained about $2 a barrel on Monday after news of halted crude production at Norway's Johan Sverdrup oilfield, which added to earlier gains stemming from escalation in the Russia-Ukraine war. Brent crude futures were up $2, or 2.8%, to $73.04 a barrel at 11:55 a.m. EST (1655 GMT), while U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude futures were at $68.90 a barrel, up $1.88, or 2.8%.

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