The Rupee opened strong from a broadly struggling dollar and anticipated Reserve Bank of India intervention, while weak domestic equities and patchy flows are likely to weigh. After rallying on the U.S.-India trade deal, which took the rupee to 90 per dollar from an all-time low of near 92, the currency has since come back under pressure. Persistent dollar demand from importers at lower dollar/rupee levels for hedging, erratic equity flows and what bankers have said are one-time dollar payments have combined to keep the rupee under strain. The RBI stepped in aggressively last week, surprising bankers, to alleviate headwinds from flows and curb potential speculative positioning. Most bankers said the intervention was likely aimed at signalling a preferred zone for the currency, indicating that the RBI does not want the rupee to slip past the 91 level at this stage. The dollar index dipped slightly on Friday, extending its weekly decline after softer-than-expected U.S. inflation data strengthened expectations that the Federal Reserve could cut interest rates later this year. Moves were more pronounced in U.S. Treasuries, where the two-year yield fell to its lowest level since 2022, a development that does not bode well for the dollar, analysts say. The Japanese yen started the week on the back foot after strong gains last week on easing fiscal worries while the U.S. dollar was steady as soft inflation data boosted the case for interest rate cuts from the Federal Reserve later this year. Liquidity is likely to be thin with markets in the U.S., China, Taiwan and South Korea closed for a holiday. The yen eased 0.2% to 153.07 per U.S. dollar in early trading on Monday after climbing nearly 3% last week, its biggest weekly jump in about 15 months in the wake of Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi's landslide election victory. Data on Monday though laid bare some of the challenges facing Takaichi and her government with Japan's economy barely growing, eking out an annualised 0.2% expansion in the October-December quarter. That may complicate the path for Bank of Japan tightening. The BOJ is due to meet in March with traders ascribing 20% odds for a rate hike. And analysts expect the yen to soon return to a weakening trend. OCBC maintained its 2026-end forecast for the yen to be at 149 per U.S. dollar. That reflects the view that the yen will struggle to transition from a funding currency to an investment currency unless the BOJ turns more hawkish than OCBC's current expectation of two rate hikes this year. The euro traded little changed at $1.1863, while sterling eased slightly to $1.3638. The dollar index , which measures the U.S. currency against six major peers, was steady at 96.959 after dropping 0.8% last week. Much of the action after the inflation data was in the bond market. The U.S. two-year yield , which reflects interest rate expectations, closed at its lowest level since 2022 on Friday, while the 10-year yield fell 4.8 basis points. Meanwhile, the Swiss franc was a touch softer at 0.7685 per U.S. dollar after gaining more than 1% last week, with investors increasingly wary of intervention from the Swiss National Bank to curb strength in the traditional safe haven.Oil prices traded sideways on Monday ahead of talks between Washington and Tehran, with concerns about Iran-U.S. tensions disrupting oil flows keeping a floor under prices, while OPEC+ leans in favour of resuming output hikes from April. Brent crude futures edged down 3 cents to $67.72 a barrel by 0156 GMT after closing 23 cents higher on Friday.......
The US dollar weakened sharply against other major currencies after data showed that the US economy suffered a record contraction in Apr-Jun, while jobless claims rose in the week ended Saturday also rose.The US unit also extended its decline globally on Thursday after Trump raised the possibility of delaying presidential election in the US, scheduled for November.European Stocks ended lower on Thursday due to mounting concern over sluggish economic recovery and a possible second wave of the COVID-19 pandemic.Germany reported its worst decline in GDP since 1970, with the Eurozone’s largest economy shrinking 10.1% quarter-on-quarter in Apr-Jun.Corporate earnings were high on investors' agenda on Thursday.In the US, Most share indices ended lower on Wednesday following bleak economic data.Lack of progress in talks between Congressional Democrats, Republicans and the White House on a new coronavirus aid package also weighed on sentiment.Gold futures settled lower on Thursday after nine consecutive days of gains, with the bullion retreating from a record rally as traders booked some profit.......