UP election results an unanticipated outcome for BJP

Winning and losing are part of electoral politics but nobody could have foreseen that voters in Assembly Elections 2017 would declare their verdict in such a resounding manner. Even their own leaders could not have imagined that the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) was headed for such a stunning victory in Uttar Pradesh and Uttarakhand. The way the Aam Aadmi Party was routed in Punjab was also something that most people would not have anticipated.

Let just begin this column by talking about the BJP. In 2013, when Amit Shah initiated the process of expanding the saffron party in Uttar Pradesh, who would have thought that the party would win 72 seats in the Lok Sabha, leaving all other parties gasping for breath? Now consider the results of March 2017. The miracle of 2014 is repeating itself. Shah looked at politics with a new perspective. He knew the minorities won’t vote for his party. Therefore, not even a single Muslim was given a ticket. Similarly, he knew that the Jatavs among Dalits and the Yadavs among the backwards had already made up their minds. So, he diverted all his attention to non-Yadav backwards and non-Jatav Dalits. For the first time in the history of Indian politics, an election that was fought keeping in mind 70% people has proved so rewarding.

The credit for this landslide victory also goes to Narendra Modi. Almost three years into his tenure, he hasn’t let even a stain of corruption taint the government’s record. It is Modi’s magic that the voters’ confidence in him hasn’t been shaken despite the hardships faced by them owing to demonetization. He drew huge crowds wherever he went and people clung on to what he was saying. 

Even as analysts were squirming, the voters were swearing by him. When he devoted three days to Varanasi, political experts began questioning him. The people have given a thumping reply to all these questions.

Now let's discuss the Samajwadi Party (SP). The election results have proved that Akhilesh Yadav’s hard work has proved futile. Even along with the Congress, the party could not win even 100 seats in Uttar Pradesh. The family feud, the division of the Muslim vote, the Congress’s bad performance, the delay in ticket distribution and the absence of booth management can all be blamed for their performance.

Akhilesh Yadav’s struggle does not end here. His uncle Shivpal Yadav has opened a new front against him even before the results were out. He is analysing the verdict as a defeat for SP’s arrogance. His supporters are saying “a few big decisions” would be taken shortly. If Yadav manages to weather the challenges with determination and resoluteness, he will prove to be the most promising leader in Uttar Pradesh.

A discussion on Mayawati is needed here. Her graph has been falling since 2012. Now she is blaming electronic voting machines for her loss. She is losing her grip on her core voters and her political magnetism is on the wane. Clearly, Mayawati’s views and politics need an overhaul.

Finally, let's talk about the Congress party. It is true that Punjab has prevented a loss of face for the oldest party in the country, but it lost Uttarakhand. The Congress met the same fate in Uttarakhand as the Bahujan Samaj Party in Uttar Pradesh. Although at the time this column was being written, the results from Goa and Manipur were not yet final, victory or defeat in these two states has a limited impact on national politics. Obviously, for Rahul Gandhi, the road to reviving Congress’s lost glory is long and hard.

The verdict of 11 March has given rise to the slogan ‘Modi naam kevalam’ (Just chant Modi’s name) and has given a resounding defeat to the entire opposition. The challenge before the Prime Minister now is to deliver on his promises. At the same time, the opposition—which is on all fours—has to gather confidence to return to the wrestling ring. With the elections in Gujarat and Himachal Pradesh round the corner, both sides will have very little time to put their plans into action.