The Fed called it: Looming Brexit vote scared FOMC into a holding pattern

 
Janet Yellen, chair of the U.S. Federal Reserve.
 

Federal Reserve policymakers decided in June that interest rate hikes should stay on hold until they have a handle on the consequences of Britain's vote on EU membership, according to the minutes from the Fed's June policy meeting released on Wednesday.

The minutes for the June 14-15 meeting, which took place ahead of the June 23 referendum in which Britons voted to leave the European Union, showed widespread unease over the so-called "Brexit" vote, including among voting members on the rate-setting Federal Open Market Committee.

"Members generally agreed that, before assessing whether another step in removing monetary accommodation was warranted, it was prudent to wait for additional data on the consequences of the U.K. vote," according to the minutes.

The Brexit vote, which shocked investors and politicians, has raised anxiety in financial markets and policymaking circles around the world, in part because it could take years before Britain and the EU agree to new rules on finance, trade and immigration.

Already, global financial conditions have tightened, with a firming of the U.S. dollar poised to weigh on U.S. exporters.

Before the vote, the Fed had signaled two interest rate hikes would likely be needed this year to keep the U.S. economy from eventually overheating. But since the British referendum, several Fed policymakers have said the uncertainty warrants a cautious approach.

In the minutes of the June meeting, many Fed policymakers who participated in the policy discussion stressed the sharpness of the hiring slowdown could be statistical noise, and most argued the economy would be ready for rate increases unless a financial or economic shock knocks America off course, according to the minutes. 

Federal Reserve officials are in a holding pattern heading toward their July policy meeting, following the release of mixed economic data and the vote by the United Kingdom to exit the European Union.

Fed governor Daniel Tarullo said the central bank should wait for more convincing evidence that inflation is closer to—and would remain near—the Fed’s 2% target before raising short-term interest rates again. He also warned that because rates are still so close to zero, the Fed has limited tools to respond if the economy slows down, another factor that argues for a wait-and-see approach.

Divisions had emerged inside the bank in the weeks after a dismal May jobs report. At the June meeting, officials sparred over the health of the labor market, the outlook for growth, risks to the economy, and whether underlying inflation is picking up. Those uncertainties were amplified by “considerable uncertainty” ahead of the U.K. referendum.

The Fed raised its benchmark federal-funds rate in December from near zero to a range between 0.25% and 0.5%. Officials signaled in April and May they were getting closer to another increase. But investors now see little chance the bank will raise rates at its meeting July 26-27, especially after the financial turmoil triggered by the Brexit vote.

Most participants judged that, in the absence of significant economic or financial shocks, raising the target for the federal-funds rate would be appropriate if incoming information confirmed that economic growth had picked up, that job gains were continuing at a pace sufficient to sustain progress toward the committee’s maximum-employment objective and that inflation was likely to rise to 2% over the medium term.

Fed officials in recent days have also said it could take some time before they understand how the Brexit vote might affect the U.S. outlook.

Fed officials in recent days have also said it could take some time before they understand how the Brexit vote might affect the U.S. outlook. 

Still, other officials are taking a sunnier view. Fed Vice Chairman Stanley Fischer said Friday recent data suggest the U.S. economy “has done pretty well” since May, and he said those developments are “more important for the U.S. outlook…than Brexit all by itself.”

 

Before the Brexit vote, the U.S. manufacturing sector had gained a firmer footing, consumer confidence had climbed, and household spending was bouncing back after a lackluster start to the year.