The Republican nominee has achived one of the most imporable political victories in modern US history – despite a series of controversies that would easily have destroyed other candidacies. He pledged to unite America after his shock election as president after the most divisive campaign in US political history.
Donald Trump‘s next big day is scheduled for Friday, January 20 2017 when he will be sworn in on the steps of the US Capitol at noon. The new 45th President of the United States will then officially take over from the current President Barack Obama.
With each personality in the Trump administration and in each area of bilateral cooperation, there are clear opportunities for India to seize.
It’s a parlour game played in many capitals around the world: Who is to get what senior position in government? And what can the backgrounds and viewpoints of those appointed tell us about changes in policy? Nowhere is this more relevant than during a presidential transition in the US, a massive undertaking in which more than 2,000 senior government positions and many more subordinate ones change hands. The economic and military importance of the US naturally increases global interest and speculation about those elected or selected to senior leadership positions.
Indian interest in US president-elect Donald Trump and his team is therefore natural. India-US ties are never problem-free even at the best of times, but the US is nonetheless India’s most important global partner. Ever since Trump’s election to the presidency in November, US officials have been at pains to emphasize the bipartisan nature of recent American engagement with India, implying that individuals will matter little to the overall trajectory of bilateral relations. This is only partly true. If Trump’s election has shown one thing, it is that personalities matter.
The first one to consider will be Trump himself: He famously stated last year that on foreign policy he is his own top advisor. He has already shown himself to be unpredictable, voicing his views on social media without necessarily indicating whether these are reflective of his administration’s policies. He is also evidently a man of strong likes and dislikes. Thus, his initial interactions with Prime Minister Narendra Modi and their personal dynamic will be very important for the short-term relationship with India.
Although no one—not even senior members of the US government—has a clear idea of the directions policy will take under Trump, we can already get glimpses of positives, negatives, and uncertainties from India’s point of view. On the positive side, an expected thawing of US relations with Russia under Trump and the likely withdrawal of the US from the Trans-Pacific Partnership will be welcomed in New Delhi. We can also expect counter-terrorism cooperation to increase. By contrast, Trump’s public criticism of overseas investments by US corporations will conflict with Modi’s campaign to attract US companies to “Make In India”, while the new administration’s anti-immigration rhetoric—including on H-1B visas—could hurt Indian information technology companies.
The uncertainties for India will concern four broad areas. One will involve the nature of US-China relations. India could leverage a more competitive relationship to its benefit, in terms of commercial opportunities and military technologies. But equally, a return to a notion of realms of influence or the exploration of a modus vivendi between Washington and Beijing could put India at a disadvantage. A second area of uncertainty concerns Afghanistan and Pakistan. Will Trump’s generals be persuaded, initially, by Rawalpindi? Or will a strong counter-terrorism instinct prevail? Third, can win-win economic and trade solutions be found in an increasingly protectionist political environment? And finally, what approach will the Trump administration take on multilateral affairs and global governance?
Whatever the outcomes, there will be growing pains, and those taking over at the helm of US government will have to be familiarized with Indian views on a wide range of issues, including on terrorism, trade, immigration, and military technologies. Like any new administration, it will take time to get settled. But in each area, and with each personality, there are clear opportunities for India to seize.