The Rupee opened stronger ?on Monday, after ?the local central bank tightened limits on banks' FX ?positions, which could ?spark a wave of onshore ?dollar selling as ?traders rush to cut ?arbitrage positions. The rupee rose nearly 1% to 93.85 per dollar ?in early trading, ?recovering from a record low of ?94.84 ?hit on Friday. The Reserve Bank of India late Friday directed banks ?to cap their ?net ?open rupee positions in the foreign ?exchange market at $100 ?million ?by the end of each business day, with ?compliance ?required latest ?by April 10.These ?arbitrage trades were built by buying dollars onshore and selling them in ?the NDF market to exploit the spread between the two segments. This spread had widened ?significantly amid a pickup in volatility and the fall in rupee on heightened risk aversion and oil-driven pressures linked to the Iran war. The size of such positions is estimated at $25 billion ?to over $50 billion. The pressure on the rupee has been intense amid persistent portfolio ?outflows and mounting concerns over the impact of higher oil prices on India's economic outlook. The rupee ?has ?dropped more than 4% in March through Friday, putting it on course for its worst monthly performance in more than seven years. The currency on Friday dropped nearly 1% to 94.8125, hitting an all-time low of 94.8400. The RBI had been intervening in ?both the onshore ?and NDF markets ?to support the currency and slow the pace of the rupee's decline. The U.S. dollar held broadly steady on Monday, poised for its strongest monthly gain since July as investors fret about ?the ramifications of a long war in the Middle East, denting the yen past the crucial 160 level and spurring intervention jitters. Markets have ?been rattled this month after the conflict effectively shut the Strait of Hormuz, a chokepoint for about a fifth of global oil and gas flows, driving Brent crude toward its biggest monthly rise and unsettling rate expectations. That ?left the dollar on the front foot as investors sought safety this month. The euro fetched $1.1512, on course for a 2.5% drop in March, its weakest ?monthly decline since July. Sterling was at $1.32585, little changed on the day but set for a drop of 1.7% this month. The dollar index , which measures the U.S. currency against six other units, was at 100.14 in early trading. Elevated oil prices have reignited inflation concerns, prompting U.S. rate futures to begin pricing in the risk of a Federal Reserve rate hike later this year, a sharp shift from earlier this year when traders were betting on as many as two rate cuts in 2026. Oil prices extended gains on Monday, with Brent headed ?for a record monthly rise, after Yemeni Houthis launched their first attacks on Israel over the weekend, widening the U.S.-Israel war with Iran in the Middle East. Brent crude futures jumped $3.09, or 2.74%, to $115.66 a barrel ?by 2353 GMT after settling 4.2% higher on Friday.......
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